View Full Version : Ben Scrivens vs. the NHL

07-16-2012, 10:33
So our fact-finder Rob Pettapiece over at NHL Numbers has written a post about AHL goaltenders. Using a tested and true baseball method of looking at how these goalies did against NHL competition, we can come up with a much better metric than simply "save percentage" for evaluating how they played.

Of course, like most goaltenders, there's still little predictive value, but in the case of Ben Scrivens, say, is there a better goalie than we initially thought? Do we have a goaltender who fared better against NHL competition with the Marlies than he did against AHL competition?

In June, I wrote that Scrivens had the fourth best save percentage among AHL goaltenders who faced more than 1500 shots over the last two seasons.

Unfortunately, the simple answer is no. If you click on the link, you find that Scrivens isn't even found in the Top 10 of goaltenders in save percentage against NHLers, straggling behind even the most 'AHL' goalies such as Cedrick Desjardins or Michael Leighton.

Scrivens was fifth in the AHL in overall save percentage. He was first in goals against average, but that's largely a team-based metric. The best way to determine goaltender value, ideally, is even strength save percentage on the road. Unfortunately the AHL doesn't split its data like the NHL does.